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Latest Methane Anomalies (off the chart) with Expert discussion

by on January 19, 2012

December anomaly is 14ppb higher than 2010. This means the methane must be up at 1854ppb, off the chart

AIRS 2011 / 12

TerryM: It is the facts that are alarming, not the messaging.


Compare this with 2010 / 12

AIRS 2010 / 12

Here are more plottings of the december month, AIRS data 2006-2011 (click an image to enlarge):

And now look at the current emission “long term trend”

800.000 years Icecore Greenhouse Gas evidence

Expert discussion

December anomaly is 14ppb higher than 2010. This means the methane must be up at 1854ppb, off the chart.

The open waters are also making a significant contribution. 2500% supersaturation over the arctic is not trivial.

The jump started in July and now soars to a new record high that is quite a bit higher than before. Clearly a “new” source or the ESAS just was a stronger source to feed the Northern Hemisphere.

It is also no wonder the arctic has suffered amplified warming with these gases being strongest and most concentrated up there. This is also the hardest place to keep track of SATs which I hope soon they deploy a new satelitte soley for arctic temperature. That can reach the pole or closer at a more accurate depiction than the current satelittes.

Anyways. Is methane only coming out of the Laptev and ESB or also the Chuchki, Kara, and Barents?

2011 like 2007 was a bit off the charts…but the length of time that the Laptev was exposed to max sun was absurd. This still though is with ice using up most of the incoming solar energy until early to mid July.

Just so people don’t carry away the wrong impression, there has been no long term warming trend over the past 10k years. The natural peak temp of the Holocene period occured about 8,000 years ago and slowly declined over the following 6,000 years. The temperature began to rise about 2,000 years ago with the big jump occuring over the past 150 years which has returned temp to near what it was during the Holocene Thermal Maximum 8,000 years ago.[1]

Yes it should take hundreds of years to destablise the deeply buried hydrates, but what about exasperating those already outgasing and those potentially already close to doing so?

Just a couple decades ago. These areas only had a short window at the end of the summer of open water, And even then the water was still filled with ice floes and cold. Before the early to mid 80s it was nearly ice covered to some extent all year or only open for less than a month. There is 500,000-1,000,000 mil km2 of water area that used to see a very small amount of direct w/m2 maybe 30-50 watts per year. Now these areas are getting 150-200 w/m2. This is very new. This is concerning to me.

This is pretty simple science IMO. That seems to me that melting would be accelerated by more than a factor of 2 because the amount of solar energy reaching these areas has gone up by hundreds of percent in some cases on a year to year basis. American Wx

[1] Regarding the Holocene Thermal Maximum “However, orbital forcing would predict maximum climate response several thousand years earlier than those observed in the Northern Hemisphere. This delay may be a result of the continuing changes in climate as the Earth emerged from the last glacial period and related to ice feedbacks. It should also be noted that different sites often show climate changes at somewhat different times and lasting for different durations. At some locations, climate changes associated with this event may have begun as early as 11,000 years ago, or persisted until 4,000 years before present. As noted above, the warmest interval in the far south significantly preceded warming in the North.” Wikipedia

Related

Snow, Water, Ice, Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA)

Dr Lovelock explains the Daisyworld model.

Just the melting of all the floating ice in the arctic ocean, will add as much heat to the earth, as all the Co-2 we put in the atmosphere to date.” Dr. James Lovelock

Estimating the Global Radiative Impact of the Sea-Ice-Albedo Feedback in the Arctic
“..a more realistic ice-free-summer scenario (no ice for one month, decreased ice at all other times of the year) results in a forcing of about 0.3 W m−2, similar to present-day anthropogenic forcing caused by halocarbons. The potential for changes in cloud cover as a result of the changes in sea ice makes the evaluation of the actual forcing that may be realized quite uncertain, since such changes could overwhelm the forcing caused by the sea-ice loss itself, if the cloudi- ness increases in the summertime.” Source

Methane Anomalies (without considing december AIRS Methane Anomaly 2011)

Yurganov: ..after 2007 new growing source(s) caused a new growth of CH4. The nature of these sources is a matter of debates.
The current rate of CH4 increase (~ 20 Tg per year for the global troposphere) seems to be constant between 2007 and September, 2011. This increase does not look catastrophic: in early 1980 methane was increasing with a rate 40-50 Tg/year and the rate decreased to zero by 2000. A permanent monitoring is necessary to detect a potential large surge as promptly as possible. Yurganow London CH4 Anomalies discussion

Satellite observes spatiotemporal variations in mid-upper tropospheric methane over China

Before 2007, CH4 mixing ratio was nearly stable. The average mixing ratio during the last 6 years over major northern hemispheric countries is similar. However, there has been a significant increase in tropospheric CH4 concentrations after 2007 in most northern hemispheric areas, with slightly larger increases over China. EurekAlert

Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf – an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova

Climate Progress Arctic Methane Outgassing On The East Siberian Shelf: A Primer Plus an Interview with Dr. Natalia Shakhova

[Club of Rome] Implications of Arctic Permafrost Thaw

China Warns of “Extremely Grim Ecological and Environmental Conditions” From Global Warming “Chinese Scientists: Climate Change Threatens Food Security

Key Findings + Background Science = SWIPA Chapter 5 · Changing Permafrost and its Impacts (80 Mb download)

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2 Comments
  1. jim fenske permalink

    In reply…..a story:

    She closed the book, put it on the table and finally decided to walk through the door. Who would blame her? So negative, so dark. Not really a story anyway just a rant. Why, she thought, do people put these ideas in writing anyway? That first sentence was stuck in her head “3.7 Million People Affected by Rising Seas by 2050.” A New York Times headline, sure, but it has to be hyperbole, right? If things were really that bad all the worlds governments would come together to fight it like an alien from space. Fight it like a war in which the outcome meant our very existence. If some space creature was parked off our planet injecting it with space gas we would rise and fight as one, like we fought fascism in WWII. So why not fight CO2? 98% of scientists say that’s what’s happening and only the political elite, with their investments to lose (see Putin), stand in the way of doing something. She thought of a 3’ rise in sea levels, the level described in this book. How would that affect her? Not at all, apparently. It would affect her children and their children. She felt a tug of anxiety but also saw that she could escape this dilemma by just turning away. Escape by walking through that door. There were no consequences for her other than a nagging feeling of guilt. Could she live the rest of her days looking into her children’s eyes, her grandchildren’s eyes, knowing that they would suffer apocalyptic weather, maybe starvation, possibly war? But Senator Inhofe (a Senator!), said it was a “big hoax”. 98% of scientists think it’s happening vs. a few politicians who say it isn’t. Something else had to be going on. Was it just the money? She looked at the S.F. Bay and thought of the cost of a rising sea. All the harbors, bridges, the freeways, the cities built slap up against the water. Gone. Or more accurately, not useable, swamped. The Golden Gate sat delicately across the mouth of the bay. A gigantic oil tanker cruised slowly between the intensely developed buildings of San Francisco and the undeveloped, wide open Marin headlands, where the cliffs supported the far end of the bridge. How awful, she shuddered as she thought what that book proposed: install a lock system similar to the Panama Canal so that the bay would be saved. A 15’ high wall visible from all around the bay area and then another one 200 yards past that. Both 687’ below the bridge. All the existing freeways and cityscapes and infrastructure within the bay could remain but at the cost of losing the view of the open ocean under the orange and graceful expanse of this national monument. That would be too painful to lose. My child’s future or my comfort, she mused. Was it right? Easier to follow the “deniers” and pretend all those studies were just wrong. But what if they aren’t wrong? Wretched book! Making her even consider these possibilities was making her angry. How dare they make her worry over something that might not happen? There was a 2% chance it might not! Hmm. This was more likely than the chance she might get in a car wreck. Her car insurance company, the state D.M.V., police departments everywhere, insisted she carry car insurance for the .25% chance she would get into a wreck in any given year. So a 2% chance of destroying everything? What kind of insurance is there for that? The book outlined the cost to move the ports and harbors and displaced persons for all of America by 2050: $5 trillion. It just made it seem hopeless. Should we even be thinking like this while the economy needs positive thinking? We need to start working again and bring the economy back on line! Our way of life depends on it. The American way of life….. for the next 38 years at least. Ah! The logic this author set out was tempting to believe. “Our economy can be saved, the world could start working again, if we implement a new Works Progress Act bringing the full brunt of our efforts to remaking the energy delivery system with nuclear, solar, wind, expanding our mass transit systems, replanting forests, inventing new materials like green concrete that absorbs CO2 (see Scientific American, Aug. 2008.) “ It sounded so tiring. There was so much to do. She just wanted her cable shows, her glass of wine, maybe a hot bath later. Her daughter would never know.
    When I’m gone, she thought, her memory of me will fade and it won’t matter. She began to dream of her daughter in some future place, leaning over a little boy, her son?, helping him pack his few belongings again. It was time to move further back from the bay. The storms had come so quickly that year, surging up all the way to Sacramento Street, a full mile from the original beach. The 3’ rise, the storm surges, the loss of all infrastructure, no clean water, no sewers, made her weep with frustration. That it all could have been handled ahead of time. My stupid mother, she thought. The boy began to tremble, knowing what was next. Why did they not care about us?! All those patriotic words and not a single act. Rather, a forced inaction. She thought of throwing another rock at the building that housed the Center for American Progress, the people responsible for disseminating the idea of global warming as a hoax, but realized it been burned to the ground the night before. She gathered the boy and began the trek to where the military had set up temporary shelters over the hills in the farm land beyond the bay. The stone age. We’ve been driven back into the stone age by dithering and indolence. Her degree in mathematics was useless for farming and yet to be allowed to farm was her highest hope now. To farm, to live, for as long as the water held out. The purification system failed last week. She remembered the book her mother used to read and then re-read. It seemed to imprison her in a cloud of darkness. She would talk about apocalypse and cross reference some passages to the Bible and then talk to friends about Nostradamus, the Mayas and finally go online (when there was an internet) to write and read the work of JPL Scientists, David Archer and James Hansen. It became an obsession and it was infectious. It was why she became a scientist. But it was all for nothing. The politicians had been right in a way. The scientists had the numbers right but there was nothing the world could do by then. The temperature rise in the oceans began the release of methane that had been frozen on the sea bed and the methane had filled the atmosphere with 10 times the greenhouse effect that the CO2 had done. The book had been quaint in its assertion that all human activities had to stop to reverse the global warming process. In fact, the German’s (on their way at that time to becoming the world’s greenest nation after Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and nine others) insisted on austerity measures for Greece during the financial crisis of 2012 knowing that Greece would collapse, then Spain, Ireland, Portugal and finally Italy would follow suit. The domino effect would bring world capitalism to a halt and with it all of the CO2 producing industries. Their idea had merit but had been too late. The cumulative effects of industrial production, forest loss, even cattle farming had already tipped the balance. No one knew that once that balance had gone over the air couldn’t just be scrubbed or the sunlight diverted from space. The sea bed released its methane and the global temperature rose cataclysmically. So the deniers were right. It would have been better to eat, drink, and be merry. Their god would soon take them to their “rightful” positions in heaven, or Kolob, and they could watch from above as their children’s children suffered the results of their willful ignorance.
    She looked up from her day-mare. It had seemed more like a vision than a fantasy. Her guilt was strong now. She picked up the book again and began underlining passages for later research. She had a bible somewhere didn’t she? And that Mayan calendar was on her shelf. This was no time to just walk away.

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  1. Methane in the Twilight Zone (Second Episode) « The Climax

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